16 Races to Watch: The Bench Is Building the Next Democratic Majority

To: Interested Parties
From: The Bench
Date: October 28, 2026
Re: 16 Races to Watch: The Bench Is Building the Next Democratic Majority

Overview

In a year when Democrats have the wind at their backs, the most consequential question on Election Night will be simple: Who outran it? 

A wave can sweep mediocre candidates into office, giving Democrats a false sense of security and masking the weaknesses that have kept us from building a durable majority. The candidates who outrun that wave and win over voters other Democrats can’t are the ones we should be studying. 

The problem isn’t that Democrats lack political talent. It’s that we have a system that too often fails to identify it. That’s why we launched the Bench after the 2024 election: to find candidates Democrats have overlooked who are uniquely equipped to win back voters we’ve been losing. Instead of recruiting from the same narrow pool of elected officials and political insiders, we looked for candidates outside the traditional political pipeline. Our candidates have distinctive backgrounds, deep community roots, and the ability to connect with voters beyond the Democratic base through biography, heterodox issue positions, and raw talent. 

Our first question wasn’t, “How much money can you raise?” It was, “Do you share the values, struggles, and experiences of the people you want to represent?”

The Bench recruited and backed 23 candidates this cycle: 

• 16 advanced to the general election. 
• Five of them won primaries against establishment-backed opponents, with some winning decisively after starting 20 or more points behind in the polls.
• Fifteen of our 16 general-election races have shifted toward Democrats in Cook Political Report’s ratings, including 10 in districts and states that Trump carried by double digits. 
• Republicans spent $5.9 million to defeat Bench-backed candidates in primaries and prop up weaker opponents for the general election. In three of four races, they failed. 

The Bench’s slate includes a Tejano music star in South Texas, a smokejumper and union leader in Montana, a farmer in Western North Carolina, a pastor who leads one of the largest congregations in Kansas, a gold-medal Paralympian in Iowa, a retired Navy admiral in South Carolina who was fired without cause by Pete Hegseth, and a three-time Bronze Star recipient and trailblazing female Special Operations veteran in the Hudson Valley.

All four of our Senate candidates have turned races in states Trump won by at least 13 points in 2024 into Toss Ups. Six of our House candidates — Bobby Pulido, Sam Forstag, Nancy Lacore, Blake Gendebien, Pia Dandiya, and Johnny Garcia — are running in seats Trump won by double digits that Cook Political Report now rates Lean Republican or more favorable to Democrats. These are races that were not supposed to be remotely close, yet Republicans are now spending more than $58 million defending them. 

In Texas, Republicans thought they’d gerrymandered their way to easy victories. Instead, they’re being forced to fight for seats they assumed were safe against Pulido and Garcia, candidates with deep roots in the communities Republicans tried to carve up. You can redraw a district, but you can’t redraw who belongs to it.

While much of the Democratic establishment was busy studying how to talk to working people, our answer was simpler: Run them. You can’t fake the experience that comes from growing up on food stamps, waking up at 4 a.m. to run your dairy farm, keeping our communities safe as a sheriff’s deputy, jumping into a wildfire, tending to the sick as a hospital chaplain, or spending decades in uniform protecting your country.

Our candidates are challenging conventional wisdom about where Democrats can win and which voters they can persuade. These are the races to watch in 2026: 

• Adam Hamilton (Kansas Senate): Adam is a fifth-generation Kansan and Methodist pastor who grew a congregation from a handful of worshippers in a funeral-home chapel to 25,000 members. For 36 years, he’s brought Republicans, Democrats, and independents together around their shared faith, even as the country has grown more politically divided. He’s running to bring that same approach to a government where politicians have stopped listening to one another and putting aside their differences to do what’s right for Kansans. Cook moved the Senate race to Toss Up in October, putting a state Trump won by 16 points in play.
• Blake Gendebien (NY-21): A fourth-generation North Country dairy farmer, Blake runs a 1,000-acre farm with 500 cows and 12 employees. He’s taking on Trump’s tariffs, rising costs, and labor shortages that threaten rural communities. A gun owner and conservative Democrat, he supports stronger border security and bipartisan immigration reforms that help farmers hire workers. Blake’s standout campaign has made this deep-red district competitive, with raters recently moving it to Lean Republican.
• Bob Brooks (PA-07): Bob is a firefighter, union president, and baseball coach who grew up relying on food stamps and public housing. He understands why working-class voters have stopped trusting Democrats because he’s experienced many of the same struggles they have. Now he’s fighting to win them back with better wages, affordable health care, and a government that actually works. In one of the most heavily targeted races in the country, Bob’s independent thinking and support from every wing of the party have helped move the race to Lean Democratic.
• Bobby Pulido (TX-15): Bobby is a Latin Grammy-winning Tejano star whose music has provided the soundtrack to South Texas weddings, quinceañeras, and carne asadas for over three decades. The son of a migrant farmworker, he’s a self-described conservative Democrat, avid hunter, and practicing Catholic who defies Washington’s stereotype of a Democratic candidate. His crossover appeal and deep understanding of the Rio Grande Valley have turned a district Trump won by 18 points into a Toss Up.
• Cait Conley (NY-17): Cait is the daughter of a postal worker and a construction worker. She joined the Army after 9/11, served 16 years, deployed to combat six times, and earned three Bronze Stars. A former military police officer who rejects calls to defund the police, she’s unapologetic about her patriotism and believes Democrats have made a mistake by letting Republicans claim the mantle of loving America. Her record of service and willingness to challenge her own party give her an opportunity to win over disillusioned independents and Republicans in a suburban district rated Toss Up.
• Denise Powell (NE-02): Denise is a small-business owner and former corporate executive who left the private sector to fight for public schools and get more Nebraskans involved in local elections. She entered her primary more than 20 points behind a candidate from one of Nebraska’s most prominent political families, then pulled off an upset with early support from the Bench. Her victory showed that Democrats don’t need to keep turning to the same political families and establishment favorites to win. The district is now rated as Likely Democratic.
• James Talarico (Texas Senate): James is an eighth-generation Texan, former middle-school teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian who uses his Christian faith to make a moral case against corruption and a political system rigged against the middle class in a state Trump won by 13. His case against opponent Ken Paxton, whom Texas Republicans impeached after he was indicted on securities fraud charges, is resonating with disillusioned voters seeking change after 30 years of Republican rule in Texas. James has run one of the strongest statewide campaigns this cycle, turning a solidly Republican race into a Toss Up.
• Jamie Ager (NC-11): Jamie is a fourth-generation farmer who knows rural North Carolina because he’s spent his life working its land. He’s fighting for farmers, demanding hurricane relief without partisan games, and refusing to take his cues from Washington. His deep community roots and independent message have turned NC-11 from a solidly Republican seat that Trump won by 10 points into a real Democratic pickup opportunity, with the race now rated Lean Democratic.
• Johnny Garcia (TX-35): Johnny grew up on San Antonio’s Westside and worked construction and plumbing jobs to pay for college before spending two decades in law enforcement. An old-school, law-and-order Democrat, he’s the only Democratic cop running for Congress this cycle and supports border security and well-funded police departments. Johnny defeated a primary opponent who had a history of making offensive statements, despite Republicans spending $1 million to boost that opponent. Johnny has put a Republican-drawn district Trump won by 11 points in play, with Cook moving the race from Likely Republican in September to Toss Up this month.
• Josh Turek (Iowa Senate): Josh has spent his life beating the odds. Born with spina bifida, he became a two-time Paralympic gold medalist before winning the reddest district in the Iowa legislature held by a Democrat. He’s one of just three Iowa House Democrats who supported tougher immigration enforcement, and he’s not afraid to break with his party. Now he’s taking on Ashley Hinson over her record on tariffs, health care, and the Iran war, turning Iowa’s Senate race into a Toss Up in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points.
• Luke Bronin (CT-01): Luke is a Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan before becoming mayor of Hartford. He spent eight years tackling the city’s toughest problems, stabilizing its finances, averting bankruptcy, and prioritizing public safety. Recognizing that voters wanted new leadership, Luke challenged 14-term Congressman John Larson and won. His victory shows how next-generation Democrats can defeat establishment incumbents by making an affirmative case for change rather than waging an ideological fight.
• Mary Peltola (Alaska Senate): Mary grew up fishing salmon along Alaska’s Kuskokwim River and became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. A strong advocate for Alaska’s oil and gas industry, she’s never been afraid to break with national Democrats when Alaska’s interests are at stake. Her understanding of Alaskans’ unique needs and deep ties to fishing communities helped her flip a House seat in 2022. In 2024, Trump won Alaska by 13 points, but Mary’s Alaska first values have moved this to a Toss Up race, showing how a Democrat who knows her communities’ needs can persuade voters that the national party struggles to win.
• Nancy Lacore (SC-01): Nancy spent 35 years serving her country as a Navy helicopter pilot, rose to the rank of three-star admiral, and raised six kids. Then Pete Hegseth fired her without cause. A former Republican who never planned to run for office, she entered the Democratic primary, defeated a repeat candidate, and earned bipartisan support. Now she’s making Republicans fight for a Trump +13 district they’ve held for 43 of the last 45 years, with the race rated Lean Republican.
• Pia Dandiya (FL-22): Pia is a former teacher and principal who spent her career helping people succeed, from improving schools to making government more effective. Running on a “Make Common Sense Great Again” platform, she’s focused on lowering costs, fighting corruption, and creating more opportunities for South Florida’s children. With a  background in education, business, and public service, she offers voters a different kind of Democrat in a district Trump won by 10 points that Cook now rates Toss Up.
• Sam Forstag (MT-01): Sam put himself through college before becoming a smokejumper and fighting wildfires for $16 an hour. A first-time candidate, he defeated a better-funded establishment favorite in his primary. Now he’s winning support across the political spectrum, including from former Republican Governor Marc Racicot. In a district Trump won by 13, Sam’s relentless fight for Montana families struggling with rising costs has helped turn the race into a Toss Up.
• Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03): Sarah worked her way through college cleaning hotel rooms, waiting tables, and working at Walmart before becoming a Lutheran minister and hospital chaplain. She’s spent her career putting her faith into practice, from feeding hungry families to serving communities politicians too often overlook. She’s also proven she can win in Republican territory, defeating Iowa’s Republican Senate president and winning reelection in a state senate district that Trump carried. Now she’s challenging Republican Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd District, a district Trump won by 4 that Cook moved to Lean Democratic in October.

Looking Ahead to Election Night

On Election Night, we should ask the same questions of every Democrat, including our Bench candidates. Did they run ahead of other Democrats on the ticket? Did they win back, or lose less among, the voters who’ve been leaving the party? Did they cut into Republican margins in the counties where Democratic support has collapsed?

Because the real test in a wave year isn’t simply who won. It’s who reversed the party’s slide in places Democrats have been losing ground and outran generic candidates in a good year. These candidates are showing us how to build a majority that can survive a less favorable political climate. If we want this year’s gains to last, we need to understand what the candidates above did right and learn from it.